A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
